Online social networks and offline protest

Figure 3 reveals a robust statistical relationship between yesterday’s level of coordination and today’s number of protests. To reach this conclusion, we use a negative binomial regression model where the dependent variable is the count of protests at time t and the primary independent variables is the coordination at time t − 1 <img class=”mathimg” src=”http://www.epjdatascience.com/content/inline/s13688-015-0056-y-i1.gif” alt=”View MathML”/> . The coordination measure has a p-value less than 0.01 (coefficient of 2.239 and standard error of 0.569), and a one standard deviation increase in the coordination measure is associated with a 25.4% increase in the number of protests on the following day. Figure 3 also shows that the result holds when a number of potential other methods of coordination are modeled. The percent of tweets that contain a hashtag indicates the extent to…


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