Kagglers vs. Vegas

I was wondering how well the competitors in this year’s competition compared with Vegas predictions, so I put together a script to generate the attached csv file: https://www.kaggle.com/goodspellr/d/wcukierski/2016-march-ml-mania/kagglers-vs-vegas/ Explanation: Comparing with Vegas is a little bit tricky and there are a few ways to do it: Ignoring the Log Loss metric of this competition, one way to compare is by calculating how often the team predicted to be the favorite wins. Vegas’s favorite has won 73.3% of the games played so far. In the column labelled ‘correctWinPred’, I calculate this for all of the entries in this year’s competition. By this measure, 96 entries have outperformed Vegas this year, with Lavarez leading at roughly 82%. Another way to compare is by converting Vegas spreads to probabilities of winning and calculatingā€¦

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